When a known climate sceptic is re-elected as president of the USA, environmentalists are bound to be worried about the impact his leadership will have on America and climate change on a global scale. Donald Trump was recently voted president of the USA; this has caused climate experts across the globe to express concern over the impact this will have on climate change action.
The Democratic Party have consistently shown more concern for climate change than Republicans (particularly since Trump has been their leader) and was the better party to vote for if Americans wanted to see climate action. When Biden was president, he passed laws such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which invested $391 billion in reducing carbon emissions; however, Trump’s presidency could undo the Democrats’ hard work. For example, an analysis completed by Climate Brief earlier this year found that Trump’s election could produce four billion tonnes more carbon dioxide emissions than if the Democrats were elected again.
During his first term in 2017, Trump attempted to withdraw from the Paris Agreement but was barred from doing so until November 2020 by the terms of the agreement. Therefore, the USA was only removed from the treaty for 107 days as Biden rejoined on his first day back in office. The Paris Agreement, signed in 2016 by over 150 countries, is an international agreement to help reduce emissions and limit global temperature increase. If Trump chooses to withdraw from this agreement now, he’d only have to wait a year before the USA would have no obligation to this agreement. After this point, he’d have three years to do as he pleases regarding carbon emissions and climate change without reporting to the UN. This could lead to the USA significantly increasing its emissions, exacerbating the effects of climate change.
Trump’s election has also thrown a spanner in the works of COP-29. Biden has chosen not to attend this year, and since Trump won’t be in office until January, no agreements will apply to the USA. Other world leaders, such as Xi Jinping and Emmanual Macron, have also opted not to attend COP-29. This could reduce the effectiveness of any deals made at COP this year and cause other essential countries to question if future COPs are worth attending. COP has been rapidly losing its credibility for a while now. Recently, it has been described as ‘no longer fit for purpose’ by the former UN Secretary, General Ban-Ki Moon, and former UN Climate Chief, Christiana Figueres. Major leaders not bothering to attend while oil and gas bosses are ‘guests’ could further reduce trust from the public and increase the feeling of helplessness around climate action.
Despite this, Trump’s potential adverse effects on climate change could be limited. Firstly, the Inflation Reduction Act has proven beneficial in many Republican districts; 85% of the invested money has been spent in states with elected Republicans. Trump could, therefore, face opposition from members of his party if he tries to reverse the Act. The International Energy Agency also reported that the global investment in clean technology is double that of oil and gas, suggesting that investing in greener options may benefit the USA economically. It’s also important to note that the USA pulling out of the Paris Agreement won’t stop the other nations involved from pushing to meet their goals. Renewable energy options such as wind and solar power have also increased in popularity since Trump’s last term as president, which may make his attempts to increase oil and gas usage less effective.
However, if Trump does leave the Paris Agreement as promised and ignores future COPs, he will be less restrained than before during this presidential term and pose a significant threat to any climate action. The USA will also be setting a dangerous precedent for the other countries, as without their cooperation, follow-throughs may seem impossible. For now, all we can do is wait and see what the consequences of Trump will be for the future of climate change.