Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sent an open letter to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, inviting the Russian side to begin peace negotiations in a third country. The war in Ukraine has now claimed the lives of fifty-five thousand Ukrainian soldiers according to the Ukrainian Government. UK spy agency GCHQ reported in May that Russian forces had suffered half a million casualties since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.
In his letter, Zelenskyy emphasised the decreasing Russian public support for the conflict in Ukraine due to inflation caused by international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on oil facilities. “You have spent nearly half of your 26 years in power waging war against Ukraine. Those years could have been very different.”
Recent months have seen Ukraine steadily increase both the frequency of its strikes inside Russian territory, and the range of its attacks. In the last week, an oil terminal and naval base in Kronstadt, close to St Petersburg, were hit by drones 870 kilometres from the Ukrainian border. This strike came only hours before Vladimir Putin was set to open Russia’s flagship economic forum in St Petersburg.
Despite these Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, Russia’s regular missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities have not ceased. At the end of May, Zelenskyy made an emergency request to US President Donald Trump that he increase shipments of US-made Patriot missiles, one of very few systems that can intercept Russian ballistic missiles. Russia launched some of its most devastating strikes against Ukraine at the beginning of June, including the use of an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, the missile’s third reported firing in combat.
However, it is not just Ukraine bearing the cost of Russia’s missile and drone attacks, as a Russian drone overflew Ukraine’s border with Romania in May, striking a tower block in the Romanian border town of Galati. This is not the first time Russian drones have entered the airspace of a NATO nation. Since the beginning of the conflict, many drones have struck rural areas in Romania close to the border, and last September, Russian drones were shot down over Poland after crossing the Ukrainian border.
NATO nations have reiterated their support for Ukraine, with the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte visiting Kyiv after the Russian strikes, bringing with him all thirty-two ambassadors to NATO from the alliance’s member states. Rutte posted on social media “our message is crystal clear: NATO’s support for Ukraine remains unshaken.” However, remarks made by President Trump have showed cracks in the alliance, as he calls for Europe to spend more on its own defence, instead of continuing its reliance on the US.
Despite Ukraine’s stockpiles of US-made weapons (not least Patriot) beginning to run out, the supply of weapons from Europe has continued. Recently, Ukraine announced it would buy twenty Swedish-made Gripen fighter jets funded by a European Union support loan. Under the deal comes European-made Meteor air-to-air missiles, which although not as capable as Patriot, will help Ukraine intercept Russian drones and missiles at long ranges.
The strain from over four years of full-scale conflict between the two countries is becoming increasingly visible. Zelenskyy’s willingness to return to the table for face-to-face discussions with Putin does provide hope the conflict’s end may be in sight.
