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“For two years we’ve dreamed of this moment”

Phase one of ceasefire deal is agreed, but future for Gaza is unclear

Image by Jaber Badwin, via Wikimedia Commons
Image by Jaber Badwin, via Wikimedia Commons

By Hannah Fortune and Emily Reid 

On the 9th of October 2025, Israeli and Palestinian officials agreed upon a ceasefire deal, just two days after the two-year anniversary of the October 7th attacks. Phase one of the ceasefire pushed for by American president Donald Trump, took effect on the 10th of October, after being ratified by the Israeli government.  

Hamas officials have agreed to release the remaining 48 Israeli hostages currently held in Gaza, 20 of whom are believed to be alive. This is in exchange for 2,000 (1,700 of which held without charge) Palestinian detainees being held in Israeli prisons. According to an Israeli report, at the end of 2024 there were more than 9000 Palestinians being held in Israeli prisons. This exchange took place on the 13th of October.  

Amongst the Palestinian detainees released was a boy called Omar Yahya Al-Qarinawi. The teen, who is diagnosed with autism, was shot near an aid distribution point by an Israeli soldier. It is alleged that the Israeli army transported him to a hospital in Israel where he was detained for 2 months. 

Hamas also released the bodies of hostages stating that they have released all bodies that are reachable in Gaza. The ceasefire deal also agrees to allow aid into Gaza. Pressure groups in Israel are demanding a limitation to aid into Gaza until the 19 remaining deceased hostages are returned by Hamas. All aid previously given in Gaza was distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), an organisation backed by Israel and the United States. It is reported that more than 2000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces near these GHF sites, and humanitarian group Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) described the GHF zones as “death traps.” The United Nations and British Red Cross have called for all crossing into Gaza to be opened to allow for as much aid to get in as possible. 

The first phase of this ceasefire also pushes for the Israeli military to withdraw from parts of Gaza. This will allow for de-militarised zones throughout Gaza and only allow Israeli military presence in 53% of Gaza. Hamas is also being urged to lay down their weapons and have no further influence in the governing of Palestine. Hamas have so far refused to surrender their weapons and pictures of Hamas soldiers with guns were taken at the prisoner exchange.  

After the Israeli military began to pull out of parts of Gaza on Friday, thousands of Palestinians were seen returning to northern Gaza on foot. Many of whom have no homes to go back to with a reported 92% of residential buildings being destroyed in Gaza. The UN has called for tents and canvases to be immediately allowed into Gaza for these displaced people.

The ceasefire has been met with great relief and hope from both Palestinians and the international community. 

The initial ceasefire deal is to be staggered, taking effect in three stages, over 42 days. The deal, based on a proposal presented by President Trump last week, was reached by negotiators from both sides – Israel and Hamas – in Egypt earlier this month. Although the first phase has been agreed upon, what the future of Gaza, Palestine and the Middle East as a whole looks like, remains unclear. And many of the plan’s ambitious ideas for postwar Gaza have yet to even be negotiated. 

Over the initial days of the ceasefire, the world saw the suspension of military operations for the first time since March of this year, when Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Gaza after a temporary ceasefire. Alongside this, Israel has partially pulled back its military to a “yellow line” in Gaza, a part of the ceasefire requiring Israeli troops to withdraw from certain areas of Gaza, and both sides have begun a hostage exchange. In this, Hamas has returned the 20 living hostages and the bodies that they claim they could access, while Israel has released approximately 2000 Palestinians they had seized. 

So far, although it is an agreed upon part of the deal, aid distribution in Gaza has been arduous. NGOs have been met with challenges dispensing aid to Gaza City and its surrounding areas, given the damage to infrastructure. 

Also included in the deal is the reopening of the Rafah crossing. The Gaza/Egypt border, seized by Israel in 2024 during the Rafah offensive, has been called to reopen. This move would allow the flow of more aid and would allow for some people to leave. How this territory will be managed, once [or if] it is reopened, is unclear. Egypt, however, has been vocal in insisting the crossing be managed by Palestinian authorities only, and has rejected proposals from Israel to coordinate its reopening. 

Similarly, questions have risen around how the future of a Palestinian government, if there is to be any such thing, will look. At present, Israeli troops are still deployed in Gaza. The agreement, as it stands, does not make clear when, or how, Israel would agree to fully withdraw its forces. 

With all of the above concerns, there are still many crucial sticking points for future negotiations. During the negotiations and the media coverage that has followed, much of the focus has been on Hamas; the requirement that they disarm and their option to either seek amnesty or leave Gaza. But what about the Palestinians?

In Trump’s proposal, postwar Gaza would be governed by a “technocratic Palestinian committee”, with no influence from Hamas. And while Hamas may be open to the idea, as mentioned, many of these details still need to be laid out. The U.S. proposal calls for an “international stabilisation force” to handle security in Gaza. The proposal, although not officially agreed upon, raises further questions: who would/should have influence over the region? How would this be implemented? And would it be effective? 

It is unclear what influence the Palestinian people will have over their own existence. Will Palestine be a place for Palestinians – where they can live freely, can participate in democracy, have a say in their politics – or will they be further suppressed, and ruled by an amorphous administration? Will there even be a future for Palestinian statehood? These questions remain unanswered. 

The lack of negotiations around the future of Gaza and Israel having violated previous ceasefires, topped with the current ceasefire deal made on shaky grounds, sows doubts in the international sphere.

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