On Thursday 30th May, after less than twenty-four hours of deliberation, a 12-person jury of Donald Trump’s peers gave their verdict in the Hush-Money Case. The former president was found guilty on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records concerning a $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels, to cover up an affair in an attempt to unlawfully influence the 2016 election. This makes him not only the first president to be charged with crimes, but now the first to be convicted, a stain that he will no doubt carry in his attempt to regain the presidency this year.
Polls show that voters are concerned about sending a convict to the White House. Exit polls conducted at the Republican Primaries repeatedly showed a third of GOP primary voters would see Trump as unfit if convicted. In a tight race, losing even a small percentage of voters could make all the difference.
In his press conference on the following Friday morning, Trump began noting that he is still under Judge Merchan’s gag order, which forbids him from talking about witnesses. He then proceeded to criticise the prosecution’s key witness, his very own estranged former lawyer, Michael Cohen, saying, in clear reference to Cohen, “I’m not allowed to use his name because of the gag order, but he’s a sleaze bag.”
Trump also criticised the Judge, President Joe Biden and the trial, calling it “rigged”.
The former president is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11th, just four days before he is formally nominated at the Republican National Convention. He could be sentenced to as much as four years behind bars and each of the 34 counts carries a $5,000 fine. Trump will be sentenced by Judge Juan Merchan, who ran this trial. Legal experts have weighed in on the likelihood of prison time, and although not likely, it is still on the table.
“Most first-time non-violent offenders do not get jail time.” noted Paul Rosenzweig, a former member of the Ken Starr investigation into former president Bill Clinton in the 1990s, and an expert on the history of presidential investigations. However, according to Rosenzweig, Trump’s conduct in the courthouse during the trial, including violating his gag order several times, may tilt the balance in favour of prison time. But the judge may simply hand Trump house arrest or community service.
Trump fans seem to be amped up to support him in the wake of his criminal debacle. His website crashed on Thursday as small-money donors rushed to hand him $35 million. However, other potential Trump voters may be turned off by his crimes – especially those who are younger and more diverse than average Trump voters, those who voted for Trump’s primary opponent Nikki Haley, and those who see the 2020 election as legitimate.
“This is an existential risk to Trump’s campaign, if Democrats can take advantage of it.” said Dan Pfeiffer, former White House Communications Director under the Obama Administration.
The Biden campaign responded to the verdict by encouraging people to vote. “We respect the rule of law, and have no additional comment,” said Ian Sams, the White House Counsel’s Office spokesperson.
Mr. Trump has already indicated that he plans to appeal.
